|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Unveiling the Pact
The recent signing of a strategic mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has sent ripples across South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Many in India are debating what this Gulf-South Asia alliance truly implies for national security, given its NATO-like clause: an attack on one will be considered an attack on both. But what lies behind the headlines? Should India see the pact as a clear and present danger, or is there more nuance to unpack?
Why India Should Be Worried
The agreement formalizes historic Saudi-Pak military ties, with new language that promises joint defense potentially extending to Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. For Indian security strategists, this adds a layer of complexity:
- Pakistan May Feel Emboldened: Pakistan is citing the deal as a deterrent against India. The very public assurance of Saudi backing could stiffen Islamabad’s resolve in any confrontation, or embolden its rhetoric on Kashmir and border disputes.
- Nuclear Shadow: Saudi officials haven’t ruled out nuclear cooperation in extreme crises, which introduces uncertainty in South Asia’s delicate nuclear balance.
- Changing Regional Alliances: The pact signals Riyadh’s desire to diversify security partnerships, indicating a possible realignment in West Asia’s power dynamics potentially at the expense of India’s diplomatic leverage in the Gulf.
- India’s Security Calculus Shifts: For the first time, India might have to factor in Saudi strategic support for Pakistan—not just in public statements, but potentially in logistics, intelligence, or conflict mediation in worst-case scenarios.
Why India Shouldn’t Be Worried
Despite these headline-grabbing points, many security analysts and diplomats point to reasons why New Delhi need not panic:
- Saudi-India Relations Are Deepening: India is now Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trading partner, with bilateral commerce topping USD 41 billion far greater than Saudi-Pakistan trade. Riyadh has repeatedly reaffirmed that its ties with India are robust, and the agreement isn’t meant to target Delhi.
- Ground Realities vs. Rhetoric: While the pact sounds dramatic, analysts call it more posture than promise. Saudi priorities remain focused on regional stability, especially in the Middle East, rather than direct involvement in South Asian rivalries.
- India’s Growing Gulf Influence: India’s strategic and defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia has accelerated in recent years, including joint exercises and security dialogues, giving India its own significant channels with the Kingdom.
- Saudi Balancing Act: Experts see the pact as part of a broader attempt by Saudi Arabia to diversify alliances amid uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees, rather than an outright pivot toward Pakistan. As such, Indian officials are publicly calm, promising to “study the implications” but emphasizing a mature, multifaceted partnership with Riyadh.
Indian Government’s Response
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has responded with measured caution. Officials note that the Saudi-Pak deal “formalises a long-standing arrangement” and has been under consideration for years. They stress that India’s partnership with Saudi Arabia has “deepened considerably” and covers a much wider strategic spectrum than security alone.
Parting Thoughts: A Shift, Not a Shock
While the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact is historic, the reality is far less alarmist than headlines suggest. For India, it’s a reminder to nurture its Gulf ties and remain vigilant in the region’s complex chessboard but not necessarily a cause for panic. The emerging landscape demands strategic patience and nuanced diplomacy, not knee jerk reactions.
